Night Owl 9/Night Owl CD-ROM (NOPV9) (Night Owl Publisher) (1993).ISO/046a/wfexp5_9.zip/PROPHECY.TXT

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Branch Davidian's False Prophecies: A Common Characteristic
                          Rick Branch

Long before David Koresh became a household name, Watchman
Fellowship maintained a file on the Branch Davidians. Their history
has been retraced in the secular media as well as in other articles
in this issue of the Watchman Expositor.

However, there are several aspects of this group's history the
secular media have failed to recognized. One such aspect is the
connection between the Branch Davidian's false prophecies and that
of other, more well-known non-Christian group's false prophecies.
It would seem that false prophecy is a common characteristic. (See
also "Branch Davidian's Sexual Perversion: A Common Characteristic"
elsewhere in this issue).

The appeal of "End-of-the-world" or "Armageddon-type" prophecies
has a very powerful effect on people's lives. It is partly because
of this fascination with The End, that people flocked to the Branch
Davidian compound in the 1940's and `50's and why many of them
stayed.

In 1942, Victor Houteff, then-leader of the organization, changed
the group's name to Davidian Seventh Day Adventist, "based on his
belief that the restoration of David's kingdom in Palestine is
imminent." After Victor's death, his wife, Florence, gave the
message that "...David's Kingdom will be established on April 22,
1959. Hundreds of followers join the group, disposing of their
property and businesses. Total membership grows to about 1,400
under her leadership" (San Diego Union-Tribune, 1 March 1993, p.
A-8).

Following the pattern of other false prophecy groups, when this
prophecy failed, many of the followers faded away. Yet, there were
many whose beliefs became stronger. These people, along with other
new converts, were the ones who would eventually became followers
of Vernon Howell or David Koresh. Years later, after becoming the
undisputed leader of the Branch Davidians, Koresh would be seen by
his followers as leading "...them through an apocalyptic future to
salvation" (Longview News Journal, Texas, 7 March 1993, p. A1).

While the story of Koresh and his followers began to dominate the
media at the end of February and will no doubt continue to be
mentioned for many months to come, his story is not unique. In
fact, it is reminiscent of many other groups which are still
thriving in America today.

Throughout the history of the Watchtower Bible and Tract Society,
various leaders have given numerous false prophecies. Beginning in
1914, Charles Taze Russell, founder of the Watchtower Bible and
Tract Society, wrote, "In view of this strong Bible evidence
concerning the Times of the Gentiles, we consider it an established
truth that the final end of the kingdoms of this world, and the
full establishment of the Kingdom of God, will be accomplished by
the end of A.D. 1914" ("The Time is at Hand," p. 99). Thus, the end
of the world or the battle of Armageddon, "will end in A.D. 1914,"
according to the Jehovah's Witnesses (Ibid, p. 101).

This prophecy was followed by others which also predicted The End
of various institutions or the world itself in 1918, 1925, 1975 and
1989. When each of these ends failed to arrive, many followers of
the Watchtower left the organization. However, many did not.

The first reaction to false prophecies by a member of the group is
not necessarily to leave the group. This can also be seen in The
Children of God, now known as The Family of Love. Founded by
"Moses" David Berg, the leader gave the dire prophecy of America's
destruction in 1974 by the comet Kohoutek. He wrote, "But it will
be a 40 day warning culminating somewhere in January, most likely
between the 11th and 21st of January" (The 3rd Letter of Moses on
the Comet!, 12 November 1973, p. 1).

Just before this impending destruction, Children of God members
moved to Europe. After the failed prophecy, rather than leaving the
group, many began to proselyte new members throughout the European
countries.

A similar scenario was seen in another non-Christian group which
has, in the past few years, received a great amount of favorable
press. Founded by Herbert W. Armstrong, the Worldwide Church of God
has had its share of false prophecies throughout its history. One
of the most famous concerned an impending drought that was to
strike America sometime before 1975.

Armstrong wrote, "...this drought will be even more devastating
than he foresees, and that it will strike sooner than 1975 ■
probably between 1965 and 1972! This will be the very beginning, as
Jesus said, of the Great Tribulation!" What specifically will
happen as a result of the beginning of the Tribulation? Armstrong
stated, "Here is exactly how catastrophic it will be: One Third Of
Our Entire Population Will Die in this famine and disease
epidemic!" ("1975 In Prophecy," pp. 10, 12).

The dynamics of strengthening membership as a result of failed
prophecy is discussed by Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken and Stanley
Schachter in their book, "When Prophecy Fails: A Social and
Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the
Destruction of the World." This is an excellent work for
understanding the mind-set of groups like the Branch Davidians, the
Watchtower, the Children of God and others. In its pages several
characteristics are discussed. Two of the most relevant are the
following:

First, after several false prophecies, the members feel the need to
confirm their beliefs in the group's teachings by attempting to
"proselyte" others. Their beliefs are confirmed by attempting to
bring others into their fold (p. 182). This is precisely what many
of the above-mentioned groups did upon the failure of their
prophecies.

Before the failed prophecy or perception of a failed end, the
groups would practice proselyting. However, after the prophecy
failed, in order to help shore up the individual's inner belief
system, they would attempt to spread their message with redoubled
efforts.

This is precisely what David Koresh did with his radio message
which was broadcast on one of Dallas' largest radio stations. His
message was also reproduced in the "Fort Worth Star-Telegram" on 3
March 1993. Koresh stated, "We made an agreement with ATF agents
that they would allow me to have national coverage of this tape
that I might give to the world all... of (the) information that I
have tried so hard to share with people... (Ibid, p. A-17). His
purpose was to teach the people of America his message.

A second very relevant and common characteristic of these false
prophecy groups is their need to draw strength and confirmation
from each person within the group itself. The authors of When
Prophecy Fails explain, "It is reasonable to believe that
dissonances created by unequivocal disconfirmation cannot be
appreciably reduced unless one is in the constant presence of
supporting members who can provide for one another the kind of
social reality that will make the rationalization of
disconfirmation acceptable" (p. 205).

Simply stated, when a prophecy has failed and there is no external
doubts about this fact (e.g. David's Kingdom to be established on
22 April 1959), one of the members' best ways to overcome these
undeniable facts is to gather strength from other members of the
group who also believe in the group's teachings. This is important
to understand, because, though the Branch Davidian compound was
surrounded by the ATF and FBI officers, Koresh was still teaching
and the members were still able to observe their holy days as a
united community; thereby not only gaining strength from one
another but also gaining the much needed confirmation that their
leader is correct in his teachings and still in control.

The demonstration of a group's false prophecies can be a strategic
element for Christians to use when witnessing to members of these
non-Christian groups. However, it has also proven in the past to be
a very powerful tool for the group's leaders to use in the
manipulation and control of the individual member's belief system.